New Zweitstimme Forecast
Marcel Neunhoeffer and colleagues from from the University of Mannheim, Hertie School Berlin and HU Berlin have published the updated version of zweitstimme.org. For the 2021 Bundestag election, they are also cooperating with the Süddeutsche Zeitung, on whose homepage current forecasts are regularly published by zweitstimme.org.
The goal of the team is to use a statistical model to provide a broad audience with information and forecasts about the federal election that go beyond the snapshots of political sentiment provided by opinion polls (e.g., “Sunday polls“). Predictions of future events, in this case the outcome of the federal election, are always fraught with uncertainty. Therefore, it is particularly important to communicate the uncertainty of prediction models such as that of zweitstimme.org clearly and in a way that is easy to understand. The model links historical information on federal elections with current polling data published on wahlrecht.de.
For the current numbers please check https://zweitstimme.org/en/posts/forecast/.